Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 28 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2525 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 2525 DEN 06:30 → PHX 07:27 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 3043 DEN 15:21 → PHX 15:58 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2525 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 06:30	PHX 07:27	3%	1%	0.6%	96%
WN 1625 Southwest	DEN 07:31	PHX 08:48	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 399 Southwest	DEN 07:24	PHX 08:21	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
MQ 4040 Envoy	DEN 06:08	PHX 07:15	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 496 Southwest	DEN 09:53	PHX 10:51	9%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 962 Southwest	DEN 10:35	PHX 11:33	9%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 468 Southwest	DEN 09:54	PHX 10:53	9%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2198 Southwest	DEN 10:43	PHX 11:41	10%	1%	0.6%	no record
F9 1375 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 06:53	PHX 07:59	10%	3%	0.6%	84%
UA 1782 United	DEN 09:57	PHX 11:03	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 1254 United Flight history →	DEN 15:35	PHX 16:35	11%	4%	0.5%	82%
UA 1481 United Flight history →	DEN 08:00	PHX 09:00	11%	3%	0.5%	84%
AA 1404 American Flight history →	DEN 07:13	PHX 08:08	12%	3%	0.6%	80%
AA 2602 American Flight history →	DEN 12:10	PHX 13:30	12%	5%	0.6%	36%
UA 1686 United Flight history →	DEN 11:25	PHX 12:25	13%	3%	0.5%	87%
OO 6351 SkyWest	DEN 17:31	PHX 19:02	13%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 631 United Flight history →	DEN 13:35	PHX 14:45	14%	4%	0.5%	88%
F9 2105 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 12:22	PHX 13:17	14%	4%	0.6%	85%
F9 4753 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 22:36	PHX 23:32	14%	5%	0.7%	68%
WN 1637 Southwest	DEN 21:56	PHX 22:57	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1194 United	DEN 21:01	PHX 22:11	15%	4%	0.5%	no record
F9 4765 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 18:45	PHX 20:02	15%	6%	0.6%	69%
WN 1634 Southwest	DEN 15:19	PHX 16:13	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 121 Southwest	DEN 17:53	PHX 19:09	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 287 Southwest	DEN 14:20	PHX 15:16	17%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 127 Southwest	DEN 19:08	PHX 20:10	18%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1507 United	DEN 19:26	PHX 20:19	18%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 3043 Southwest	DEN 15:21	PHX 15:58	22%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON