Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 875 at 08:51 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 875 DEN 08:51 → PSP 10:07 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4790 DEN 20:46 → PSP 22:01 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 875 Southwest	DEN 08:51	PSP 10:07	7%	1%	0.4%	no record
UA 687 United	DEN 11:12	PSP 12:37	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 305 SkyWest	DEN 15:46	PSP 17:12	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
OO 5192 SkyWest	DEN 20:01	PSP 21:41	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2644 United Flight history →	DEN 19:27	PSP 21:00	16%	4%	0.6%	74%
WN 4790 Southwest	DEN 20:46	PSP 22:01	22%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON