Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: OO 5194 at 06:49 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–18%.

Safest bet that day OO 5194 DEN 06:49 → RAP 07:43 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2781 DEN 19:10 → RAP 20:24 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 37% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 5194 SkyWest	DEN 06:49	RAP 07:43	7%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 5303 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 21:07	RAP 22:20	8%	3%	0.5%	81%
UA 4674 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 10:05	RAP 11:30	9%	2%	0.5%	81%
UA 5891 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 14:35	RAP 15:59	10%	3%	0.5%	74%
UA 1585 United	DEN 11:13	RAP 12:33	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 5225 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 17:55	RAP 19:24	12%	4%	0.5%	53%
UA 2781 United Flight history →	DEN 19:10	RAP 20:24	18%	5%	0.6%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON