Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 2269 at 09:49 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–24%.

Safest bet that day UA 2269 DEN 09:49 → RDU 15:16 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest WN 4753 DEN 18:11 → RDU 23:24 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2269 United Flight history →	DEN 09:49	RDU 15:16	7%	2%	0.5%	89%
WN 4696 Southwest	DEN 11:36	RDU 16:50	16%	2%	0.4%	no record
UA 2671 United Flight history →	DEN 17:45	RDU 23:16	16%	3%	0.5%	77%
WN 4753 Southwest	DEN 18:11	RDU 23:24	24%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON