Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 12–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 1622 Southwest	DEN 10:49	RIC 16:11	12%	2%	0.4%	no record
UA 1534 United Flight history →	DEN 17:50	RIC 23:25	15%	3%	0.5%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Richmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Richmond is 2 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DEN 00:40 → ATL 05:42DL 302	1h 54m Atlanta	ATL 07:36 → RIC 09:12DL 1462	6h 32m	99%	95%
United Details →	DEN 07:38 → ORD 11:11UA 1928	3h 19m Chicago	ORD 14:30 → RIC 17:49UA 3523 · flown by Republic	8h 11m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	DEN 05:45 → ATL 10:44DL 341	1h 44m Atlanta	ATL 12:28 → RIC 14:07DL 3152	6h 22m	99%	93%
Delta Details →	DEN 06:05 → DTW 10:54DL 1745	3h 36m Detroit	DTW 14:30 → RIC 16:13DL 3073	8h 08m	99%	93%
Delta Details →	DEN 07:57 → ATL 12:58DL 995	1h 48m Atlanta	ATL 14:46 → RIC 16:23DL 1214	6h 26m	99%	92%
United Details →	DEN 06:00 → EWR 11:49UA 2345	3h 39m Newark	EWR 15:28 → RIC 17:07UA 3639 · flown by Republic	9h 07m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	DEN 06:00 → MSP 09:00DL 1129	3h 42m Minneapolis	MSP 12:42 → RIC 16:12DL 5063 · flown by Endeavor	8h 12m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	DEN 14:10 → ATL 19:16DL 706	3h 54m Atlanta	ATL 23:10 → RIC 00:51 +1DL 1175	8h 41m	100%	91%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON