Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1838 at 08:45 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 1838 DEN 08:45 → RNO 10:05 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4365 DEN 15:40 → RNO 16:41 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1838 Southwest	DEN 08:45	RNO 10:05	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 804 Southwest	DEN 09:34	RNO 10:45	8%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 2167 United Flight history →	DEN 11:20	RNO 12:39	9%	3%	0.5%	87%
UA 1604 United Flight history →	DEN 16:10	RNO 17:36	11%	4%	0.5%	85%
OO 4736 SkyWest	DEN 13:43	RNO 15:27	12%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 4680 Southwest	DEN 21:20	RNO 22:30	16%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 719 United Flight history →	DEN 19:25	RNO 20:50	16%	5%	0.5%	69%
WN 4365 Southwest	DEN 15:40	RNO 16:41	19%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON