Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 8–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2625 DEN 09:35 → SAT 12:43 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 4035 DEN 18:10 → SAT 21:24 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2625 United Flight history →	DEN 09:35	SAT 12:43	8%	2%	0.5%	92%
UA 1022 United Flight history →	DEN 13:44	SAT 16:55	9%	3%	0.5%	90%
OO 5598 SkyWest	DEN 20:28	SAT 00:21	10%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 1661 Southwest	DEN 11:25	SAT 14:33	11%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 1663 Southwest	DEN 14:30	SAT 17:29	14%	3%	0.4%	no record
UA 2819 United Flight history →	DEN 17:39	SAT 20:54	14%	5%	0.5%	61%
F9 2356 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 15:30	SAT 18:44	15%	5%	0.6%	82%
WN 4035 Southwest	DEN 18:10	SAT 21:24	16%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON