Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 11–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 5481 DEN 09:54 → SGF 12:52 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest UA 5886 DEN 17:38 → SGF 20:43 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5481 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 09:54	SGF 12:52	11%	2%	0.5%	84%
UA 4693 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 13:20	SGF 16:20	12%	3%	0.5%	85%
UA 5687 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 20:45	SGF 23:42	13%	3%	0.5%	68%
UA 5886 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 17:38	SGF 20:43	15%	4%	0.5%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON