Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 389 at 09:09 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 389 DEN 09:09 → SJC 10:36 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1679 DEN 21:32 → SJC 22:59 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 389 Southwest	DEN 09:09	SJC 10:36	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 1256 United	DEN 11:34	SJC 13:08	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 459 Southwest	DEN 13:51	SJC 15:25	14%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 2745 United Flight history →	DEN 19:30	SJC 21:09	16%	4%	0.6%	76%
WN 4744 Southwest	DEN 16:35	SJC 17:57	19%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1679 Southwest	DEN 21:32	SJC 22:59	22%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON