Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 22 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 2544 at 05:40 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–20%.

Safest bet that day DL 2544 DEN 05:40 → SLC 07:13 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest UA 2769 DEN 19:23 → SLC 20:56 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2544 Delta Flight history →	DEN 05:40	SLC 07:13	2%	1%	0.4%	87%
DL 1581 Delta Flight history →	DEN 07:05	SLC 08:36	5%	2%	0.4%	92%
WN 1680 Southwest	DEN 09:16	SLC 10:42	6%	1%	0.4%	no record
DL 1317 Delta	DEN 10:46	SLC 12:22	7%	2%	0.4%	no record
UA 497 United Flight history →	DEN 08:00	SLC 09:37	7%	2%	0.5%	90%
WN 2580 Southwest	DEN 10:43	SLC 12:07	7%	1%	0.4%	no record
UA 5646 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 21:05	SLC 22:44	8%	2%	0.5%	80%
DL 1553 Delta Flight history →	DEN 12:45	SLC 14:20	8%	2%	0.4%	84%
OO 4787 SkyWest	DEN 16:30	SLC 18:23	9%	3%	0.5%	no record
OO 449 SkyWest	DEN 18:08	SLC 19:47	10%	3%	0.5%	no record
F9 3219 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 10:51	SLC 12:27	10%	3%	0.6%	83%
WN 653 Southwest	DEN 12:38	SLC 14:04	10%	1%	0.4%	no record
UA 1963 United Flight history →	DEN 11:40	SLC 13:13	12%	2%	0.5%	80%
F9 3861 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 13:36	SLC 15:16	13%	3%	0.6%	96%
UA 1840 United Flight history →	DEN 13:40	SLC 15:13	13%	3%	0.5%	84%
F9 4251 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 22:13	SLC 23:44	13%	3%	0.6%	71%
DL 1623 Delta Flight history →	DEN 17:56	SLC 19:29	15%	3%	0.5%	84%
DL 9962 Delta	DEN 18:11	SLC 19:44	16%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 2135 Southwest	DEN 19:49	SLC 21:21	17%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 4734 Southwest	DEN 21:30	SLC 22:47	18%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 3815 Southwest	DEN 16:16	SLC 17:37	19%	2%	0.4%	no record
UA 2769 United Flight history →	DEN 19:23	SLC 20:56	20%	3%	0.5%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON