Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2149 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–24%.

Safest bet that day UA 2149 DEN 08:00 → SMF 09:35 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 1687 DEN 18:58 → SMF 20:23 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2149 United Flight history →	DEN 08:00	SMF 09:35	5%	2%	0.5%	94%
WN 4490 Southwest	DEN 09:19	SMF 10:42	8%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 743 Southwest	DEN 10:33	SMF 11:58	8%	2%	0.4%	no record
UA 2673 United	DEN 11:45	SMF 13:17	9%	3%	0.5%	no record
F9 3665 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 09:18	SMF 11:05	9%	3%	0.6%	82%
UA 662 United Flight history →	DEN 13:35	SMF 15:10	10%	3%	0.5%	83%
UA 1208 United Flight history →	DEN 16:03	SMF 17:40	11%	3%	0.5%	82%
UA 2132 United Flight history →	DEN 19:37	SMF 21:12	14%	3%	0.5%	74%
WN 3421 Southwest	DEN 12:42	SMF 14:08	16%	3%	0.4%	no record
WN 4825 Southwest	DEN 15:06	SMF 16:32	18%	3%	0.4%	no record
WN 3595 Southwest	DEN 21:31	SMF 22:55	20%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 1687 Southwest	DEN 18:58	SMF 20:23	24%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON