Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 4771 at 09:21 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–17%.

Safest bet that day WN 4771 DEN 09:21 → SNA 10:41 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1692 DEN 17:16 → SNA 18:33 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4771 Southwest	DEN 09:21	SNA 10:41	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 2666 United Flight history →	DEN 07:40	SNA 09:07	8%	2%	0.5%	95%
WN 1691 Southwest	DEN 13:04	SNA 14:28	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1707 United Flight history →	DEN 13:25	SNA 14:57	11%	5%	0.5%	86%
UA 1320 United Flight history →	DEN 11:20	SNA 12:51	11%	4%	0.5%	88%
UA 1704 United Flight history →	DEN 19:10	SNA 20:40	13%	4%	0.6%	75%
UA 1291 United	DEN 17:52	SNA 19:33	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 296 Southwest	DEN 19:56	SNA 21:15	14%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1497 United	DEN 15:51	SNA 17:27	15%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 1692 Southwest	DEN 17:16	SNA 18:33	17%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON