Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 1694 at 06:39 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 1694 DEN 06:39 → STL 09:43 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1422 DEN 17:34 → STL 20:43 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1694 Southwest	DEN 06:39	STL 09:43	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 2035 Southwest	DEN 08:28	STL 11:27	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 422 Southwest	DEN 09:50	STL 12:51	9%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 652 United Flight history →	DEN 09:35	STL 12:42	11%	2%	0.5%	84%
UA 1639 United Flight history →	DEN 13:25	STL 16:33	14%	3%	0.5%	87%
WN 1695 Southwest	DEN 11:49	STL 14:51	15%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 237 Southwest	DEN 18:10	STL 21:19	15%	2%	0.5%	no record
OO 4733 SkyWest	DEN 20:29	STL 23:32	15%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 241 Southwest	DEN 15:46	STL 18:45	17%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1422 United Flight history →	DEN 17:34	STL 20:43	18%	3%	0.5%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON