Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


OO 717 SkyWest	DEN 11:51	SUN 13:50	10%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 5734 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 19:25	SUN 21:26	13%	3%	0.6%	64%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hailey on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DEN 17:56 → SLC 19:29DL 1623	1h 36m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:05 → SUN 22:07DL 3985 · flown by SkyWest	4h 11m	91%	87%
Alaska Details →	DEN 12:29 → SEA 14:03AS 682	2h 22m Seattle	SEA 16:25 → SUN 19:01AS 2322 · flown by Horizon	6h 32m	98%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON