Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1010 at 09:40 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–26%.

Safest bet that day UA 1010 DEN 09:40 → TPA 15:14 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest WN 4323 DEN 15:57 → TPA 21:16 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1010 United Flight history →	DEN 09:40	TPA 15:14	12%	2%	1.0%	89%
F9 2748 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 11:21	TPA 16:58	15%	4%	1.3%	86%
UA 2375 United Flight history →	DEN 13:55	TPA 19:33	16%	5%	1.2%	86%
UA 1961 United Flight history →	DEN 17:45	TPA 23:24	19%	5%	1.0%	71%
WN 4885 Southwest	DEN 11:44	TPA 17:05	19%	3%	1.0%	no record
WN 1703 Southwest	DEN 18:10	TPA 23:30	26%	5%	1.0%	no record
WN 4323 Southwest	DEN 15:57	TPA 21:16	28%	5%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON