Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 8–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 5315 DEN 10:04 → TUL 12:59 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 1937 DEN 17:37 → TUL 20:27 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5315 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 10:04	TUL 12:59	8%	3%	0.5%	88%
UA 4712 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 20:55	TUL 23:47	8%	3%	0.5%	81%
UA 5311 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 13:40	TUL 16:29	9%	4%	0.5%	90%
WN 194 Southwest	DEN 11:02	TUL 13:37	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 3112 Southwest	DEN 18:02	TUL 20:42	16%	5%	0.5%	no record
UA 1937 United Flight history →	DEN 17:37	TUL 20:27	17%	4%	0.6%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON