Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1708 at 09:25 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 1708 DEN 09:25 → TUS 10:30 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1762 DEN 19:10 → TUS 20:12 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1708 Southwest	DEN 09:25	TUS 10:30	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1188 United Flight history →	DEN 11:30	TUS 12:32	11%	3%	0.5%	86%
UA 2049 United	DEN 15:35	TUS 16:48	13%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 1949 Southwest	DEN 14:21	TUS 15:27	15%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 4578 Southwest	DEN 20:58	TUS 22:08	22%	5%	0.5%	no record
UA 1762 United Flight history →	DEN 19:10	TUS 20:12	24%	5%	0.6%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON