Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, UA 2420 at 09:38, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 2420 United Flight history →	DEN 09:38	TVC 14:21	15%	2%	0.6%	91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Traverse City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Traverse City is 2 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DEN 06:00 → MSP 09:00DL 1129	1h 24m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → TVC 12:54DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest	4h 54m	95%	84%
Delta Details →	DEN 14:59 → DTW 19:49DL 1648	3h 10m Detroit	DTW 22:59 → TVC 00:08 +1DL 2424	7h 09m	99%	83%
American Details →	DEN 07:16 → ORD 11:00AA 2771	1h 13m Chicago	ORD 12:13 → TVC 14:29AA 4307 · flown by Envoy	5h 13m	90%	79%
United Details →	DEN 11:15 → ORD 14:55UA 2865	3h 32m Chicago	ORD 18:27 → TVC 20:41UA 677	7h 26m	99%	72%
United Details →	DEN 15:01 → ORD 18:46UA 1023	2h 48m Chicago	ORD 21:34 → TVC 23:46UA 2071	6h 45m	97%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON