Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: OO 4805 at 20:56 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–19%.

Safest bet that day OO 4805 DEN 20:56 → XNA 00:07 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1351 DEN 17:50 → XNA 20:48 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 4805 SkyWest	DEN 20:56	XNA 00:07	8%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 5267 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 09:50	XNA 12:47	11%	4%	0.5%	87%
UA 5641 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 13:30	XNA 16:25	13%	6%	0.6%	89%
F9 4344 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 15:48	XNA 18:52	15%	6%	0.7%	85%
UA 1351 United Flight history →	DEN 17:50	XNA 20:48	19%	6%	0.6%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON