Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 8–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3535 DFW 08:46 → ABQ 09:42 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest AA 1321 DFW 21:19 → ABQ 22:40 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 31% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3535 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 08:46	ABQ 09:42	8%	1%	0.7%	80%
AA 3586 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 10:47	ABQ 11:41	9%	2%	0.6%	83%
AA 1761 American	DFW 12:41	ABQ 13:41	14%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 3053 American	DFW 14:21	ABQ 15:19	15%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 2698 American Flight history →	DFW 20:16	ABQ 21:36	15%	6%	0.7%	57%
AA 9 American Flight history →	DFW 16:07	ABQ 17:12	17%	8%	0.7%	64%
AA 1321 American Flight history →	DFW 21:19	ABQ 22:40	17%	6%	0.7%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON