Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 3920 at 08:31 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 7–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 3920 DFW 08:31 → AMA 09:56 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 2265 DFW 21:23 → AMA 22:49 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3920 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 08:31	AMA 09:56	6%	2%	0.8%	91%
MQ 3337 Envoy	DFW 10:47	AMA 12:10	6%	2%	0.8%	no record
AA 3607 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 20:04	AMA 21:50	7%	3%	0.8%	73%
AA 3383 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 13:10	AMA 14:26	9%	2%	0.8%	86%
AA 3613 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 14:26	AMA 15:44	9%	2%	0.8%	84%
AA 3789 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 17:17	AMA 18:38	9%	2%	0.8%	80%
AA 3990 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 18:58	AMA 20:22	9%	3%	0.9%	67%
AA 2265 American	DFW 21:23	AMA 22:49	22%	9%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON