tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Alaska via Portland, leaving 14:03, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 399 American Flight history → DFW 15:04 ANC 19:12 16% 5% 0.6% 73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 3 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DFW 10:39 → ORD 13:14UA 1634 2h 56m Chicago ORD 16:10 → ANC 19:54UA 841 12h 15m 97% 85%
AlaskaDetails → DFW 14:03 → PDX 16:04AS 303 1h 55m Portland PDX 17:59 → ANC 20:50AS 1455 9h 47m 97% 85%
AlaskaDetails → DFW 13:02 → SEA 15:23AS 415 3h 49m Seattle SEA 19:12 → ANC 21:59AS 1438 11h 57m 99% 80%
AlaskaDetails → DFW 09:00 → SEA 11:20AS 365 3h 09m Seattle SEA 14:29 → ANC 17:13AS 1436 11h 13m 99% 78%
AlaskaDetails → DFW 18:03 → SEA 20:24AS 322 2h 31m Seattle SEA 22:55 → ANC 01:40 +1AS 205 10h 37m 99% 74%
DeltaDetails → DFW 06:30 → SEA 08:46DL 804 1h 49m Seattle SEA 10:35 → ANC 13:17DL 922 9h 47m 98% 72%
AmericanDetails → DFW 13:10 → ORD 15:51AA 2988 1h 03m Chicago ORD 16:54 → ANC 20:34AA 375 10h 24m 84% 70%
UnitedDetails → DFW 16:50 → DEN 18:20UA 1303 47m Denver DEN 19:07 → ANC 22:57UA 280 9h 07m 83% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → DFW 13:34 → ORD 16:07AA 1285 47m Chicago ORD 16:54 → ANC 20:34AA 375 10h 00m 67% 56%
AlaskaDetails → DFW 13:02 → SEA 15:23AS 415 51m Seattle SEA 16:14 → ANC 18:45AS 9561 8h 43m 72% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON