tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 4887 SkyWest DFW 10:51 ASE 12:12 10% 5% 0.8% no record
OO 4911 SkyWest DFW 19:00 ASE 20:30 11% 3% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Aspen on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Aspen is 1 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DFW 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 773 2h 32m Denver DEN 09:25 → ASE 10:22UA 5782 · flown by SkyWest 5h 37m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → DFW 11:35 → DEN 12:45UA 2049 3h 37m Denver DEN 16:22 → ASE 17:26UA 5697 · flown by SkyWest 6h 51m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → DFW 13:44 → DEN 14:55UA 248 2h 30m Denver DEN 17:25 → ASE 18:29UA 5775 · flown by SkyWest 5h 45m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401 1h 11m Atlanta ATL 09:45 → ASE 11:22DL 4011 · flown by SkyWest 7h 02m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → DFW 16:50 → DEN 18:20UA 1303 2h 05m Denver DEN 20:25 → ASE 21:26UA 5781 · flown by SkyWest 5h 36m 93% 84%
UnitedDetails → DFW 07:00 → IAH 08:26UA 2670 1h 24m Houston IAH 09:50 → ASE 11:40UA 5814 · flown by SkyWest 5h 40m 98% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON