Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 401 at 05:20 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 401 DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest F9 2496 DFW 13:22 → ATL 16:36 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 401 Delta Flight history →	DFW 05:20	ATL 08:34	3%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 893 Delta Flight history →	DFW 06:45	ATL 09:59	5%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 839 Delta Flight history →	DFW 10:06	ATL 13:25	6%	2%	0.6%	83%
DL 961 Delta Flight history →	DFW 12:17	ATL 15:35	7%	2%	0.6%	86%
DL 414 Delta Flight history →	DFW 13:50	ATL 17:14	8%	2%	0.6%	80%
DL 921 Delta Flight history →	DFW 17:59	ATL 21:16	10%	3%	0.6%	79%
DL 1827 Delta	DFW 19:58	ATL 23:10	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 1276 American Flight history →	DFW 08:04	ATL 11:27	11%	4%	0.6%	89%
AA 1008 American Flight history →	DFW 12:11	ATL 15:36	13%	5%	0.6%	85%
AA 3104 American Flight history →	DFW 10:53	ATL 14:12	13%	5%	0.6%	82%
AA 2398 American	DFW 13:23	ATL 16:46	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 2403 American Flight history →	DFW 15:59	ATL 19:11	20%	6%	0.6%	66%
F9 3022 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 19:57	ATL 23:28	21%	9%	0.7%	76%
AA 3212 American Flight history →	DFW 17:26	ATL 20:46	22%	6%	0.7%	56%
F9 2496 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 13:22	ATL 16:36	24%	8%	0.7%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON