Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: one nonstop, AA 4188 at 20:07, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 4188 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 20:07	ATW 22:41	7%	2%	0.7%	74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Appleton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DFW 16:38 → ORD 19:10AA 1290	3h 46m Chicago	ORD 22:56 → ATW 23:58AA 3774 · flown by Envoy	7h 20m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	DFW 13:24 → DTW 17:10DL 735	3h 59m Detroit	DTW 21:09 → ATW 21:37DL 4159 · flown by SkyWest	8h 13m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	DFW 11:19 → DTW 15:02DL 2746	2h 22m Detroit	DTW 17:24 → ATW 17:50DL 4166 · flown by SkyWest	6h 31m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	DFW 05:20 → DTW 09:04DL 2183	56m Detroit	DTW 10:00 → ATW 10:29DL 4440 · flown by SkyWest	5h 09m	95%	88%
United Details →	DFW 13:44 → DEN 14:55UA 248	2h 56m Denver	DEN 17:51 → ATW 21:20UA 2089	7h 36m	97%	82%
United Details →	DFW 12:00 → ORD 14:42UA 1401	3h 24m Chicago	ORD 18:06 → ATW 19:20UA 5987 · flown by SkyWest	7h 20m	99%	80%
United Details →	DFW 17:47 → ORD 20:30UA 1564	1h 30m Chicago	ORD 22:00 → ATW 23:23UA 4495 · flown by GoJet	5h 36m	92%	74%
United Details →	DFW 07:08 → ORD 09:50UA 1695	2h 55m Chicago	ORD 12:45 → ATW 14:05UA 4475 · flown by GoJet	6h 57m	100%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON