Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 1643 at 07:26 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 1643 DFW 07:26 → AUS 08:33 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 972 DFW 21:54 → AUS 23:00 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1643 American Flight history →	DFW 07:26	AUS 08:33	9%	3%	0.7%	87%
AA 3054 American Flight history →	DFW 09:43	AUS 10:59	10%	4%	0.6%	74%
AA 794 American Flight history →	DFW 08:41	AUS 09:51	11%	3%	0.7%	80%
AA 3722 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 17:17	AUS 18:22	12%	2%	0.7%	61%
AA 1852 American	DFW 12:08	AUS 13:19	13%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 1070 American	DFW 11:09	AUS 12:12	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 1073 American	DFW 13:24	AUS 14:33	18%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 2103 American	DFW 14:48	AUS 15:52	18%	8%	0.7%	no record
AA 2707 American Flight history →	DFW 20:33	AUS 21:37	20%	8%	0.8%	55%
AA 1588 American Flight history →	DFW 18:09	AUS 19:16	20%	8%	0.7%	57%
AA 1146 American	DFW 15:50	AUS 16:57	20%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 576 American Flight history →	DFW 18:52	AUS 19:58	20%	8%	0.8%	65%
AA 972 American Flight history →	DFW 21:54	AUS 23:00	22%	6%	0.8%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON