Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AA 569 at 11:59, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 569 American Flight history →	DFW 11:59	AVL 15:19	24%	8%	1.2%	74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Asheville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Asheville is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	DFW 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 773	2h 54m Denver	DEN 09:47 → AVL 14:51UA 1992	8h 06m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401	3h 42m Atlanta	ATL 12:16 → AVL 13:12DL 1182	6h 52m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	DFW 06:45 → ATL 09:59DL 893	3h 47m Atlanta	ATL 13:46 → AVL 14:51DL 3099	7h 06m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	DFW 10:06 → ATL 13:25DL 839	2h 44m Atlanta	ATL 16:09 → AVL 17:17DL 3101	6h 11m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	DFW 13:50 → ATL 17:14DL 414	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 20:24 → AVL 21:32DL 3116	6h 42m	99%	82%
American Details →	DFW 07:00 → CLT 10:44AA 317	2h 58m Charlotte	CLT 13:42 → AVL 14:36AA 5588 · flown by PSA	6h 36m	99%	80%
American Details →	DFW 04:50 → CLT 08:23AA 1091	3h 57m Charlotte	CLT 12:20 → AVL 13:01AA 5899 · flown by Piedmont	7h 11m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	DFW 10:35 → LGA 15:10DL 873	1h 19m New York	LGA 16:29 → AVL 18:20DL 4665 · flown by Endeavor	6h 45m	89%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON