Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: MQ 3361 at 07:09 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 7–9%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3361 DFW 07:09 → BHM 09:06 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5610 DFW 14:41 → BHM 16:28 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3361 Envoy	DFW 07:09	BHM 09:06	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3399 Envoy	DFW 21:42	BHM 23:33	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 3433 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 19:32	BHM 21:23	9%	2%	0.7%	75%
AA 3884 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 13:04	BHM 14:56	9%	2%	0.6%	81%
AA 5530 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 09:51	BHM 11:53	11%	5%	0.7%	61%
AA 2671 American	DFW 09:28	BHM 11:22	14%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 5610 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 14:41	BHM 16:28	16%	5%	0.7%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON