Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–7% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 4095 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 10:38	BIL 12:35	6%	1%	0.6%	84%
AA 3937 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 21:15	BIL 23:13	7%	1%	0.6%	78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Billings on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Billings is 1 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DFW 12:30 → SLC 14:20DL 2798	2h 05m Salt Lake City	SLC 16:25 → BIL 17:52DL 3828 · flown by SkyWest	6h 22m	99%	94%
American Details →	DFW 04:52 → ORD 07:25AA 1938	2h 23m Chicago	ORD 09:48 → BIL 11:51AA 3498 · flown by Envoy	7h 59m	98%	92%
United Details →	DFW 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 773	1h 02m Denver	DEN 07:55 → BIL 09:36UA 4762 · flown by SkyWest	4h 51m	97%	90%
United Details →	DFW 16:50 → DEN 18:20UA 1303	2h 50m Denver	DEN 21:10 → BIL 22:54UA 5257 · flown by SkyWest	7h 04m	96%	88%
United Details →	DFW 11:35 → DEN 12:45UA 2049	2h 50m Denver	DEN 15:35 → BIL 17:19UA 5498 · flown by SkyWest	6h 44m	98%	88%
Alaska Details →	DFW 13:02 → SEA 15:23AS 415	1h 23m Seattle	SEA 16:46 → BIL 19:35AS 2353 · flown by Horizon	7h 33m	92%	78%
Alaska Details →	DFW 18:03 → SEA 20:24AS 322	59m Seattle	SEA 21:23 → BIL 00:11 +1AS 2457 · flown by Horizon	7h 08m	80%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON