Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 1103 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–18%.

Safest bet that day AA 1103 DFW 07:20 → BNA 09:18 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest AA 2244 DFW 15:45 → BNA 17:42 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1103 American Flight history →	DFW 07:20	BNA 09:18	8%	3%	0.6%	82%
AA 1396 American Flight history →	DFW 10:08	BNA 12:16	9%	4%	0.6%	82%
AA 1084 American	DFW 12:44	BNA 14:44	13%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 3230 American Flight history →	DFW 20:24	BNA 22:23	15%	5%	0.7%	57%
AA 1181 American	DFW 15:05	BNA 17:15	16%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 1076 American Flight history →	DFW 18:18	BNA 20:17	16%	6%	0.7%	61%
AA 1500 American Flight history →	DFW 21:50	BNA 23:50	16%	5%	0.7%	54%
AA 2979 American Flight history →	DFW 19:33	BNA 21:32	18%	5%	0.7%	57%
AA 2244 American Flight history →	DFW 15:45	BNA 17:42	19%	6%	0.6%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON