Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: AA 2019 at 10:35 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22%.

Nonstops that day


AA 2019 American	DFW 10:35	BOI 12:54	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1104 American Flight history →	DFW 21:05	BOI 23:21	22%	5%	0.7%	45%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boise on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boise is 1 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401	1h 57m Atlanta	ATL 10:31 → BOI 12:53DL 874	8h 33m	100%	92%
American Details →	DFW 14:30 → PHX 14:57AA 2108	3h 59m Phoenix	PHX 18:56 → BOI 22:04AA 4952 · flown by SkyWest	8h 34m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	DFW 16:05 → LAX 17:25DL 521	2h 34m Los Angeles	LAX 19:59 → BOI 22:58DL 4148 · flown by SkyWest	7h 53m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	DFW 06:55 → MSP 09:23DL 1276	2h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 11:39 → BOI 13:44DL 2982	7h 49m	98%	90%
American Details →	DFW 07:08 → PHX 07:34AA 474	2h 37m Phoenix	PHX 10:11 → BOI 13:24AA 4080 · flown by Envoy	7h 16m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	DFW 07:45 → SLC 09:31DL 1291	1h 23m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:54 → BOI 12:09DL 2095	5h 24m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	DFW 12:30 → SLC 14:20DL 2798	2h 17m Salt Lake City	SLC 16:37 → BOI 17:51DL 2920	6h 21m	99%	87%
American Details →	DFW 04:59 → ORD 07:36AA 1938	3h 53m Chicago	ORD 11:29 → BOI 14:08AA 2353	10h 09m	100%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON