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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 2351 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–20%.

Safest bet that day DL 2351 DFW 07:15 → BOS 12:08 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 410 DFW 16:44 → BOS 21:42 · 20% chance 15+ min late
Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
DL 2351 Delta Flight history → DFW 07:15 BOS 12:08 6% 2% 0.6% 88%
AA 1206 American Flight history → DFW 08:50 BOS 13:37 9% 3% 0.6% 82%
DL 760 Delta Flight history → DFW 12:55 BOS 17:43 11% 3% 0.6% 68%
DL 1809 Delta DFW 17:06 BOS 22:03 13% 3% 0.6% no record
AA 3102 American Flight history → DFW 10:18 BOS 15:25 14% 4% 0.6% 67%
AA 1268 American DFW 19:04 BOS 00:05 18% 5% 0.7% no record
AA 1401 American Flight history → DFW 14:29 BOS 19:31 19% 6% 0.6% 44%
AA 2567 American Flight history → DFW 18:38 BOS 23:32 19% 5% 0.7% 56%
AA 2306 American Flight history → DFW 17:27 BOS 22:17 20% 6% 0.7% 55%
AA 410 American DFW 16:44 BOS 21:42 20% 6% 0.7% no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
DeltaDetails → DFW 05:20 → DTW 09:04DL 2183 1h 01m Detroit DTW 10:05 → BOS 12:00DL 2648 5h 40m 96% 90%
DeltaDetails → DFW 13:24 → DTW 17:10DL 735 48m Detroit DTW 17:58 → BOS 20:00DL 1707 5h 36m 88% 77%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON