Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: AA 1208 at 10:20 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24%.

Nonstops that day


AA 1208 American Flight history →	DFW 10:20	BUR 11:58	10%	5%	1.2%	75%
AA 2597 American Flight history →	DFW 20:46	BUR 21:58	24%	7%	1.2%	63%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 2 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DFW 07:45 → SLC 09:31DL 1291	1h 14m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → BUR 11:54DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest	6h 09m	96%	90%
Delta Details →	DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 11:19 → BUR 12:55DL 483	9h 35m	100%	87%
United Details →	DFW 07:28 → SFO 09:21UA 790	1h 02m San Francisco	SFO 10:23 → BUR 11:49UA 2115	6h 21m	94%	81%
United Details →	DFW 15:32 → SFO 17:40UA 2413	1h 11m San Francisco	SFO 18:51 → BUR 20:22UA 2001	6h 50m	86%	77%
Alaska Details →	DFW 09:00 → SEA 11:20AS 365	2h 32m Seattle	SEA 13:52 → BUR 16:19AS 529	9h 19m	98%	75%
United Details →	DFW 16:50 → DEN 18:20UA 1303	1h 08m Denver	DEN 19:28 → BUR 20:58UA 2411	6h 08m	86%	71%
Alaska Details →	DFW 13:02 → SEA 15:23AS 415	1h 19m Seattle	SEA 16:42 → BUR 18:54AS 530	7h 52m	92%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON