Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 12–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2669 DFW 10:43 → BWI 14:51 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2251 DFW 17:15 → BWI 21:29 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2669 American	DFW 10:43	BWI 14:51	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 1476 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 07:19	BWI 11:47	12%	3%	0.7%	73%
AA 2251 American Flight history →	DFW 17:15	BWI 21:29	19%	6%	0.7%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON