Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 8–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day MQ 4066 DFW 13:23 → CAE 16:53 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3260 DFW 19:33 → CAE 23:11 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 4066 Envoy	DFW 13:23	CAE 16:53	8%	2%	0.8%	no record
AA 5437 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 10:06	CAE 13:44	11%	5%	0.9%	81%
AA 3260 American	DFW 19:33	CAE 23:11	16%	6%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON