Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: MQ 3676 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–17%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3676 DFW 07:45 → CID 09:54 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 4963 DFW 13:24 → CID 15:31 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3676 Envoy	DFW 07:45	CID 09:54	7%	2%	0.4%	no record
AA 4235 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 21:15	CID 23:33	10%	2%	0.6%	87%
AA 4318 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 15:31	CID 17:35	10%	2%	0.6%	90%
AA 3798 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 16:44	CID 18:52	11%	2%	0.6%	81%
OO 4932 SkyWest	DFW 21:23	CID 23:53	17%	4%	0.7%	no record
OO 4963 SkyWest	DFW 13:24	CID 15:31	18%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON