Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1172 at 06:58 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 1172 DFW 06:58 → CLE 10:40 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest AA 1484 DFW 18:34 → CLE 22:17 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1172 American Flight history →	DFW 06:58	CLE 10:40	9%	3%	0.6%	100%
AA 1351 American	DFW 10:58	CLE 14:50	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 2336 American Flight history →	DFW 11:02	CLE 14:48	17%	5%	0.6%	63%
AA 1230 American	DFW 14:54	CLE 18:43	22%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 1484 American Flight history →	DFW 18:34	CLE 22:17	27%	6%	0.7%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON