Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 11 nonstops are 6–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1091 DFW 04:47 → CLT 08:21 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 3002 DFW 18:48 → CLT 22:20 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1091 American Flight history →	DFW 04:47	CLT 08:21	6%	2%	0.6%	96%
AA 317 American Flight history →	DFW 07:00	CLT 10:44	8%	3%	0.6%	86%
AA 2168 American	DFW 08:24	CLT 12:04	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 2493 American	DFW 09:55	CLT 13:41	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1696 American Flight history →	DFW 11:55	CLT 15:36	11%	3%	0.6%	72%
AA 460 American	DFW 20:15	CLT 23:53	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
F9 3110 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 07:30	CLT 11:16	12%	4%	0.8%	78%
AA 2013 American	DFW 15:57	CLT 19:35	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1703 American Flight history →	DFW 17:54	CLT 21:44	14%	4%	0.6%	67%
AA 3227 American	DFW 14:18	CLT 17:51	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 3002 American	DFW 18:48	CLT 22:20	16%	3%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON