Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 1279 at 07:18 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 1279 DFW 07:18 → CMH 10:50 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 2337 DFW 15:34 → CMH 19:07 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1279 American Flight history →	DFW 07:18	CMH 10:50	8%	2%	0.6%	84%
AA 1492 American Flight history →	DFW 10:11	CMH 13:50	9%	3%	0.6%	73%
AA 641 American Flight history →	DFW 19:01	CMH 22:49	17%	5%	0.7%	48%
AA 2337 American Flight history →	DFW 15:34	CMH 19:07	19%	5%	0.6%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON