Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 6390 at 11:28 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 6390 DFW 11:28 → COS 12:37 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 790 DFW 15:52 → COS 16:54 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 6390 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 11:28	COS 12:37	9%	4%	0.7%	89%
AA 1552 American Flight history →	DFW 08:19	COS 09:30	11%	4%	0.6%	71%
AA 6267 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 17:27	COS 18:34	16%	6%	0.6%	65%
AA 1170 American Flight history →	DFW 13:41	COS 14:49	17%	6%	0.7%	70%
AA 790 American Flight history →	DFW 15:52	COS 16:54	23%	6%	0.7%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON