Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2610 at 07:38 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 2610 DFW 07:38 → CVG 11:10 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 2919 DFW 15:45 → CVG 19:06 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2610 American Flight history →	DFW 07:38	CVG 11:10	7%	2%	0.6%	87%
AA 3305 American Flight history →	DFW 10:46	CVG 14:15	10%	3%	0.6%	81%
AA 1266 American Flight history →	DFW 20:04	CVG 23:33	16%	4%	0.7%	29%
AA 2919 American Flight history →	DFW 15:45	CVG 19:06	19%	5%	0.6%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON