Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 12–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OH 5114 DFW 09:47 → DAY 13:17 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5609 DFW 17:16 → DAY 20:48 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5114 PSA	DFW 09:47	DAY 13:17	12%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 5245 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 20:13	DAY 23:44	15%	7%	0.8%	64%
AA 5517 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 14:07	DAY 17:32	16%	5%	0.7%	92%
AA 5609 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 17:16	DAY 20:48	18%	7%	0.8%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON