Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 773 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 773 DFW 05:45 → DEN 06:53 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 1322 DFW 16:13 → DEN 17:19 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 773 United Flight history →	DFW 05:45	DEN 06:53	3%	2%	0.5%	95%
F9 2549 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 06:51	DEN 08:13	8%	3%	0.7%	85%
F9 4463 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 20:28	DEN 21:46	9%	5%	0.7%	66%
UA 309 United	DFW 18:21	DEN 19:50	10%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 2049 United Flight history →	DFW 11:35	DEN 12:45	10%	3%	0.5%	84%
UA 248 United Flight history →	DFW 13:44	DEN 14:55	11%	3%	0.5%	83%
UA 567 United	DFW 09:03	DEN 10:11	13%	4%	0.5%	no record
AA 1523 American Flight history →	DFW 07:05	DEN 08:08	13%	3%	0.6%	81%
F9 2631 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 14:58	DEN 16:18	13%	4%	0.7%	76%
AA 1756 American Flight history →	DFW 08:35	DEN 09:42	13%	3%	0.6%	77%
UA 1303 United Flight history →	DFW 16:50	DEN 18:20	14%	5%	0.5%	59%
AA 2359 American Flight history →	DFW 10:41	DEN 11:46	15%	4%	0.6%	73%
AA 420 American Flight history →	DFW 13:17	DEN 14:21	20%	3%	0.6%	77%
AA 2235 American Flight history →	DFW 20:13	DEN 21:18	20%	5%	0.7%	46%
AA 577 American Flight history →	DFW 20:29	DEN 21:32	21%	5%	0.7%	50%
AA 1832 American Flight history →	DFW 14:26	DEN 15:30	24%	5%	0.6%	62%
AA 1322 American Flight history →	DFW 16:13	DEN 17:19	25%	5%	0.6%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON