Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: OH 5560 at 07:27 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–20%.

Safest bet that day OH 5560 DFW 07:27 → DSM 09:37 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1371 DFW 22:05 → DSM 23:58 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5560 PSA	DFW 07:27	DSM 09:37	9%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 3930 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 15:53	DSM 17:52	9%	3%	0.6%	94%
AA 1664 American Flight history →	DFW 13:14	DSM 15:10	20%	5%	0.7%	60%
AA 1371 American Flight history →	DFW 22:05	DSM 23:58	20%	8%	0.7%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON