Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 2183 at 05:20 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 2183 DFW 05:20 → DTW 09:04 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 3108 DFW 18:47 → DTW 22:36 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2183 Delta Flight history →	DFW 05:20	DTW 09:04	3%	1%	0.5%	94%
DL 2746 Delta Flight history →	DFW 11:19	DTW 15:02	6%	2%	0.5%	80%
F9 3178 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 05:56	DTW 09:56	7%	3%	0.7%	95%
DL 735 Delta Flight history →	DFW 13:24	DTW 17:10	8%	2%	0.5%	79%
AA 3101 American Flight history →	DFW 07:07	DTW 11:01	9%	2%	0.6%	85%
F9 3990 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 16:31	DTW 20:28	11%	4%	0.7%	76%
DL 1441 Delta Flight history →	DFW 18:35	DTW 22:20	11%	2%	0.6%	80%
AA 690 American Flight history →	DFW 11:29	DTW 15:12	15%	3%	0.6%	68%
AA 2822 American	DFW 15:10	DTW 18:55	17%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 3108 American Flight history →	DFW 18:47	DTW 22:36	19%	4%	0.7%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON