Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 12–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3625 DFW 09:38 → ECP 11:47 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest AA 2052 DFW 12:19 → ECP 14:28 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3625 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 09:38	ECP 11:47	12%	3%	1.6%	77%
AA 3628 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 18:59	ECP 20:59	13%	5%	1.6%	79%
AA 2052 American	DFW 12:19	ECP 14:28	18%	9%	1.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON