Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: MQ 3769 at 12:29 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–24%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3769 DFW 12:29 → ELP 13:22 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1514 DFW 21:33 → ELP 22:20 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3769 Envoy	DFW 12:29	ELP 13:22	8%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 1365 American Flight history →	DFW 08:13	ELP 09:06	12%	4%	0.8%	73%
AA 1658 American	DFW 11:31	ELP 12:24	14%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 1681 American Flight history →	DFW 14:41	ELP 15:36	18%	6%	0.8%	57%
AA 2097 American	DFW 16:12	ELP 17:09	20%	8%	0.8%	no record
AA 555 American Flight history →	DFW 18:41	ELP 19:34	22%	9%	0.8%	59%
AA 1514 American	DFW 21:33	ELP 22:20	24%	9%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON