Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 2215 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–19%.

Safest bet that day UA 2215 DFW 05:55 → EWR 10:34 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2861 DFW 14:59 → EWR 19:41 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2215 United	DFW 05:55	EWR 10:34	5%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 1847 United Flight history →	DFW 07:20	EWR 12:02	5%	2%	0.7%	89%
AA 1796 American Flight history →	DFW 07:00	EWR 11:46	8%	3%	0.7%	81%
UA 1268 United	DFW 09:23	EWR 13:42	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
F9 2472 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 07:50	EWR 12:31	11%	4%	0.9%	83%
UA 1574 United Flight history →	DFW 13:00	EWR 17:37	11%	4%	0.7%	78%
UA 2461 United	DFW 16:57	EWR 21:38	15%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 813 American Flight history →	DFW 11:58	EWR 16:32	17%	4%	0.7%	69%
AA 618 American Flight history →	DFW 18:23	EWR 22:56	19%	5%	0.8%	56%
AA 2861 American Flight history →	DFW 14:59	EWR 19:41	22%	6%	0.8%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON