Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: American via Miami, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Key West on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Key West on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Key West is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DFW 05:00 → MIA 08:55AA 3189	3h 24m Miami	MIA 12:19 → EYW 13:32AA 3577 · flown by Envoy	7h 32m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 11:30 → EYW 13:23DL 1472	7h 03m	100%	89%
American Details →	DFW 04:50 → CLT 08:23AA 1091	2h 44m Charlotte	CLT 11:07 → EYW 13:28AA 1816	7h 38m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	DFW 10:06 → ATL 13:25DL 839	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 15:25 → EYW 17:23DL 2168	6h 17m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	DFW 12:17 → ATL 15:35DL 961	2h 18m Atlanta	ATL 17:53 → EYW 19:51DL 2815	6h 34m	99%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON