Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 11–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1828 DFW 08:57 → FAT 10:15 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AA 1223 DFW 17:21 → FAT 18:43 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1828 American Flight history →	DFW 08:57	FAT 10:15	11%	3%	0.6%	81%
AA 1329 American	DFW 12:35	FAT 14:13	15%	7%	0.7%	no record
AA 2958 American Flight history →	DFW 22:10	FAT 00:03	16%	9%	0.7%	59%
AA 1223 American Flight history →	DFW 17:21	FAT 18:43	20%	9%	0.7%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON